Revenue

The revenue budget provided by the Scottish Government in 2023-24 represented a real terms cut for Police Scotland which does not allow the organisation to maintain the workforce at the levels of previous years and at the same time make a fair pay award in 2023-24.

Police Scotland has already returned more than £200m to the public purse every year compared to legacy arrangements (as noted above). An additional £54m of savings have been assumed to ensure the service can live within the 2023-24 budget settlement.

Hard choices are being taken to deliver effective policing within the funding available and action is being taken to achieve these savings, with areas which encounter the greatest demand and carry the greatest threat, harm and risk prioritised for resources.

Officer numbers have already reduced to 16,600. Over the last year, the impact has been mitigated through a significant increase in overtime. The funding allocation for 2023-24 means the officer establishment will remain around 16,600 (plus additional funded officers) and a service model is being built which reflects that level. At the same time, the police staff pay bill will be reduced proportionately and overtime will be reduced.

Officer and staff pay accounts for over 85% of policing’s revenue budget. The most significant revenue pressure for the organisation will continue to be annual pay awards. Each 1% pay increase in 2024-25 requires ~£11.5m of additional recurring funding, the equivalent of ~225 officers.

The United Kingdom Office of National Statistics estimates that the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) has risen by 6.8% in the 12 months to July 2023, down from 7.9% in June.

So in addition to the pay award, we are experiencing non-pay inflationary pressures, an increase in digital costs and the impact of the costs of ongoing and upcoming public inquiries.

Police Scotland will continue to seek ongoing savings and efficiencies through
continuous improvement by accelerating estates co-locations, collaborating with other public bodies and delivering the green agenda through smarter energy practices and the transition to electric fleet. As a result, the estates footprint and fleet capability will become more cost effective, however these efficiencies alone are not sufficient to deliver the significant savings required to manage a flat cash funding position over the medium term.

Initial analysis based on an illustrative 2% pay award per annum for the period 2024-25 to 2027-28, plus an assessment of other unavoidable pressures and potential savings, indicates that for policing in Scotland to operate within a flat-cash funding allocation, ~£140m of recurring savings would be required to accumulate over this period - pay award assumptions alone would require a ~2,070 FTE reduction over the next four years, the equivalent of a 9.3% workforce reduction. These reductions are in addition to the 3.7% reduction already agreed as a result of the 2023-24 budget settlement:

Table not available in accessible content.