Overview

The Scottish Government’s Resource Spending Review (RSR) published in May 2022 indicated that policing should plan for a flat cash funding settlement up until FY 2026-27, a departure from the Scottish Government’s commitment to the real terms protection of police funding.

The Capital Spending Review (CSR) published January 2021 (updated in May 2022) also indicated a flat cash capital settlement, representing a significant funding shortfall compared to our capital requirements over the medium term.
Although the revenue settlement for 2023-24 was not as severe as flat cash, outlining an £80m uplift in cash terms, the allocation was a real terms cut in funding compared to 2022-23, with £37m required to continue to fund the 2022-23 pay award for officers and staff. As a result, the budgeted full time equivalent number of police officers in Scotland has reduced from 17,234 to 16,600 in 2023-24, a ~3.7% reduction. Of necessity, policing is also reducing police staff member costs in proportion to the reduction in officer numbers and reducing overtime spending.

Hard choices are being taken to maintain effective policing within the funding available, including a pause on police staff recruitment other than for some critical or externally funded posts. Consequently, some of the things policing does will be done differently or take longer. The level of service in relation to some police work will reduce and our performance reporting is beginning to reflect those pressures.

Policing continues to respond to increasing and increasingly complex community and individual needs, evidenced by a higher number of contacts into policing. Areas which encounter the greatest demand and which carry the greatest risk are being prioritised for resources to ensure policing continues to address harm and protect the vulnerable.

However, demands on policing continue to rise and over the last year we have seen increasing rates in some crime categories and, with reduced capacity and limited investment, a reduction in detection rates.

The future funding position remains uncertain. The Scottish Government’s recently published Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) states that “economic conditions are set to remain challenging as inflationary pressures continue” and that “pressures on funding are expected to be most severe in 2024-25”.

Initial analysis, based on an illustrative 2% pay award for 2024-25, other unavoidable pressures and potential savings, indicates that for policing in Scotland to operate within a flat-cash funding allocation during 2024-25, savings of ~£50m would be required, including a further 600 FTE reduction in officers and a further 200 FTE reduction in staff members to be implemented by 1 April 2024. This is in addition to the 3.7% reduction required as a result of the 2023-24 budget settlement.

It is impossible to achieve further reductions of this scale by 1 April 2024 through natural attrition which ultimately means we will have to reduce the workforce further in-year and throughout 2024-25 to generate the savings required to fund pay awards. This would require urgent management of our officer recruitment profile as well as ongoing staff reductions.

Capabilities such as Body Worn Video, critical improvements in our Contact,
Command and Control platforms, further development of our mobile platforms and Core Operating Solution are all at risk with reduced funding levels alongside service design and efficiency focused work.