A Cashless Future?

Summary

Across the globe, different countries are seeing a rise in cashless payments. Scandinavian countries are at
the cutting edge of cashless payments. 3 to 4 per cent of transactions use notes or coins within Norway.

India has sought to prioritise digital payments through a government-led Unified Payments Interface
(UPI), which has led to a variable impact on the decline of cash in the long-term. China also has advanced digital payment options in its increasingly cashless society, that integrate a variety of transactions and advanced biometric capabilities. However, this has been slowed to ensure the inclusion of all in its economy.

From a UK perspective, HM Treasury did not order new coins in July 2025 from the Royal Mint, reflective of the decline in the use of cash in the UK. In addition, the Bank of England are considering the case for a digital pound to be used alongside cash.

UK Finance research has shown that 39% of adults live an almost cashless life. As well as predicting that cash payments in the UK will continue to decline, and that by 2031, cash will account for 6% of all payments. This reduction in the usage of cash is also reflected in the planned closure of 23,000 cash machines by 2030.

However, research has shown that during the cost-of-living crisis, those using cash on a regular basis was at a four year high.

The use of cash also varies by generation. 42% of people aged 85+ say that they rely on cash to a great
or very great extent, however 72% of those aged 16-24 regularly use mobile payments. In addition, those
with a low household income (less than £15,000 annually) are almost three times more likely to rely on cash. Research has also found an increased reliance on cash for those in poor health, or those who are unemployed. Digital exclusion also has implications for cash reliance, with 46% of those classed as digitally
excluded (defined as those who have limited abilities to use the ability and who rarely use it) relying on cash.

Recognising the potential challenge that could be faced by different areas of the population, the Financial
Conduct Authority established rules in September 2024 to ensure that communities across the UK have
reasonable access to cash. This would require banks and building societies to maintain the position that 95% of people living in an urban area being within one mile of a cash access point, and people living in rural areas being within three miles of a cash access point. 

Implications for policing and the wider justice system
Cashless societies may present benefits to the wider public, particularly as digital payments also enable
greater economic transparency. It has been predicted that some types of theft and robbery may be
reduced. However as individuals rely on mobile devices to make payments, decreases in some forms of
theft could be contrasted with the increase in other forms of theft. So-called “snatch thefts” (where an
individual’s mobile phone or handbag is stolen from them on the steet) more than doubled in the year
ending June 2024 in England and Wales. This has led to the UK government pledging to reduce the
number of phone thefts.

However, as digital payment methods are susceptible to hacking, this may present risks to individuals
and businesses if relied upon as a sole access point to money. Recognising the disproportionate impact of
online fraud on vulnerable people, multi-agency initiatives such as The Banking Protocol aim to identify
potential victims of online fraud early. In Quarter 1 of the 2024/25 reporting year, over £1million worth of
fraud funds was prevented.

In addition, a more cashless society requires a reliance on infrastructure and underpinning technology. However, this may leave individuals and wider society vulnerable to any technological or infrastructure failures.

As previously discussed, as some facets of society are excluded, this may have sociological implications
and a compounding of exclusion. However some argue that cashless societies can help to support “unbanked” individuals, for example those who may live in more rural areas who have limited access to
traditional banking methods.

In addition, some also raise concerns on privacy implications as digital transactions increase, suggesting that options for pseudonymised data be explored. Pseudonymised data is data which has been processed so that it cannot be attributed to a specific person.

Cash payments are anonymous and are therefore challenging to trace. Criminals may therefore seek alternative methods as the use of cash declines. For example, artificial intelligence (AI), crypto-currencies, the dark web and gambling can be used as methods to evade tracing by the police via money laundering. Using AI large language models, alongside phishing and ransomware-as-a-service models, criminals can create sophisticated and targeted attacks.

Tackling crimes related to cryptocurrency can often present a challenge to policing. Cryptocurrency can enable prompt, anonymous financial transfers across the globe and can be challenging to police. Interpol note that tackling this requires “sustained and concerted action” of policing, alongside partners and regulators. However, research has shown that often criminals accept smaller scale payment through legitimate bank accounts, obscuring criminal activity.

Banks have already employed AI to detect fraudulent transactions to intercept scams. As some police
forces have demonstrated partnership working with private sector organisations for other financial crimes,
it will likely be important to enhance such partnership working throughout policing in the future. This will
allow policing to implement advanced technologies developed by partners to monitor, detect and pursue
crimes.

In addition, as smaller scale transactions have permeated into legitimate banking mechanisms, this will
require sophisticated algorithms to detect such crimes. This deviation from predictable illegal behaviour,
conducted through digitally hybrid means, will present a challenge to policing to address. Policing may
wish to consider proactive methods of identifying future digital payment approaches that may be used for
illicit activities.

Policing’s focus on monitoring, detecting and reacting to crime and could arguably be evidenced Police
Scotland’s recently published three-year business plan. This includes a commitment “Invest in capabilities
outlined within our Policing in a Digital World workstreams to better prevent, protect, prepare and pursue
cyber-crime, including joining the fraud and cybercrime reporting and analysis service”.

To ensure that any future developments towards an increasingly cashless society are carefully managed,
some have called for robust financial regulatory frameworks to protect individuals. Such frameworks
would allow banking institutions and wider society to be held to standards and protocols to protect
consumers and organisations. However, it will be important to ensure that any framework or policy
developments are futureproofed to ensure they are fit for purpose as technology continues to emerge.