Report Summary
This report provides members of the Policing Performance Committee with an overview of HMICS Assurance Review of Online Child Sexual Abuse and Exploitation – Police Scotland Improvement Update.
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Meeting
The publication discussed was referenced in the meeting below
Policing Performance Committee - 12 September 2023
Date : 12 September 2023
Location : online
Timescales, Interdependencies & Demand
Timescales & Interdependencies
As previously reported, the impact of the pandemic on timescales for progress was not insignificant. Many of the recommendations required collaboration across multiple Police Scotland business areas, as well as ICT work and HR processes where recruitment has been required. These complex and cross cutting interdependencies have at times pushed out timescales for certain recommendations, however there remains an enduring commitment to drive progress to discharge the outstanding recommendations.
Demand
All progress is set against the backdrop of sustained increases in OCSAE, by any measure.
Crimes
In 2022/23 1,928 online child sexual abuse crimes were recorded in Scotland, an increase of 6.6% on the five year mean. (The 2021/22 figure was 1,911 crimes, constituting an 11.3% increase on the 5 year mean.)
Referrals
As with Law Enforcement across the UK, Police Scotland has endured sustained increases in OCSAE referrals, with some evidence of a plateau this most recent year:
As of the 18th May 2023, having been fully triaged, 974 referrals await full assessment and development by the Internet Investigations Unit (IIU).
Suspect National Online Child Abuse Prevention (NOCAPs)
Flowing from the sustained increase in referrals is the sustained suspect NOCAP demand.
Since 2021 circa 83% of the Suspect NOCAPs have been taken by the NCAIU (National Child Abuse Investigation Unit), a reversal of the pre-pandemic allocation policy). In addition to suspect NOCAPs, the referrals also generate Child at Risk (CAR) NOCAP investigations. Of all NOCAPs, circa 75% are suspect NOCAPs and circa 25% CAR investigations. The latter are almost exclusively allocated to Local Policing Public Protection Units.
The -13.6% decrease for 2022 may not be a true reflection of demand because of the number of suspect NOCAPs that will undoubtedly be generated in time from the 974 referrals awaiting full assessment in IIU.
The professional assessment is that the NOCAP allocation for 2022 was 80-120 short of what would be expected from the volume of referrals sitting within IIU, meaning true allocation in 2022 should have been 846 + circa 120 = 966 i.e. closer to that of 2021.
966 would mean the 2017 to 2022 NOCAP allocation increase was in fact circa 54% (not 35.1%) illustrating the scale of the continued demand.
In the financial year 2022/23 there were 712 suspect NOCAP investigations, with 489 arrests and 782 children safeguarded. These investigations can vary hugely in complexity, some being comparatively straightforward whilst others are hugely complex with UK or international dynamics requiring protracted investigation across jurisdictions. Many can lead to real time child protection enquiries requiring urgent safeguarding.
Strategic Risk - Demand vs. Capacity
The work of Operation PARROR has now been embedded into business as usual activity through the establishment of dedicated online CSAE enforcement teams. Demand levels have continued to rise beyond that experienced throughout the period immediately prior to and during Operation PARROR, and, consequently maintaining proportionate levels of enforcement has proven challenging. There has always been workflow with a number of NOCAP investigations awaiting enforcement - a consequence of demand exceeding resource capacity.
