Key Insights - Retail Crime

Shoplifting crimes continue to be the main contributor to the increase in Acquisitive Crime and are now at higher levels than those seen pre-pandemic, with Retailers Against Crime (RAC) highlighting an increase in high-value thefts alongside escalations to violence.

• Crimes of shoplifting account for 39.2% of all acquisitive crime and are continuing the upwards trends observed in the previous two years.
• 22,806 shoplifting crimes have been recorded YTD, an increase of 18.8% year-to-date and up 60.5% on the 5 year mean
• Shoplifting crimes have increased by 6,618 (up 40.9%) compared to the pre-COVID-19 year of 2019/20
• The detection rate for theft by shoplifting sits at 48.1%, down 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year, this is despite an increase in detections YTD, rising 18.3% (1,697 detections) to 10,963.

In addition to the increase in shoplifting crimes, violence against retail workers is also a matter of note. In 2021 new legislation in the form of the Protection of Workers (Retail and Age-related Goods and Services) (Scotland) Act 2021, was brought into effect in Scotland specific to crimes committed against retail workers.

When the new offences were introduced in 2021, the numbers gradually increased month-on-month between August and December as awareness of the new offences increased. The crimes from 2023-24 and 2024-25 are still increasing but are showing signs of plateauing.

GRAPH IN PAPER - TOTAL CRIMES AGAINST RETAIL WORKERS

The rise in retail crime across Scotland is replicated across the UK. Figures provided by Operation Opal indicate the rise in shoplifting crimes is equally, if not more, pronounced when UK figures are considered.

Operation Opal data indicates that during Quarter 3 (July 2024 – September 2024) there has been a 29% increase in England and Wales when compared against Q3 in 2023. Q3 2024 levels are also 7% up on Q2 2024, indicating offences are still rising.

There are assessed to be a number of interconnected key drivers resulting in the increase in retail crime.

36.7% of shoplifting offenders have committed more than one crime of shoplifting in the current FYTD period, an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the last year. Shoplifting repeat offenders make up 54.8% of all Group 3 repeat offenders.

GRAPH IN PAPER - 2023/24 PERCENTAGE OF SHOPLIFTING REOFFENDERS BY DIVISION

Retail Crime Key Drivers:

• Cost of Living Crisis
• Serious Organised Crime
• Changes in the Retail Environ
• Criminal Justice System
• Peer Pressure
• Mental Health/ Addiction

As evidenced by the UK wide increases in shoplifting crime highlighted in the Operation Opal data, Police Scotland are not unique in managing the rises in retail crime. Changes in the retail environment such as self-service tills, less staff (including security staff), product placement and ‘non-confrontation’ policies are UK wide procedures and are considered to have an adverse impact on shoplifting levels.

The increasing cost of living, driven by fluctuations in market prices, and supply chain pressures caused by political instability are all likely drivers, with the resulting high demand, domestically and internationally, for stolen items and cheaper products making shoplifting an appealing venture.

This could particularly apply to those under the age of criminal responsibility and under 25 who will be aware of potential criminal justice outcomes for shoplifting and see it as a low risk/high reward crime. (Evidence provides that in the last five years there has been an increase in the number of under 18’s named as the accused in theft by shoplifting crimes. In 2023/24, 663 13-year-olds were named as the ‘accused’ in theft by shoplifting crimes, an increase of 61% (n=313) in comparison to 2019/2020.)

There is also a realistic possibility that organised criminals are recruiting under 18’s to carry out shoplifting offences for them and the continued issues of young person’s being pressured into shoplifting are ever present. The introduction of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (UNCRC) (Incorporation) (Scotland) Act 2024, does however provide opportunities to work with our young people and improve their life outcomes.

Based upon the increasing prevalence of retail crime and recognising where Police Scotland and partners can have an impact on these key drivers, Police Scotland have adopted a 4P approach and introduced a Retail Crime 4 P’s Plan (as per Appendix A).